Maths and climate change: The melting Arctic (1)

Resources to be used during the day and for follow-up work

The Arctic ice cap is melting fast. Some scientists believe that the summer sea ice cover will disappear from the Arctic in as little as four years' time, and many predict that a total melt-down of the Arctic will occur within our lifetimes, with potentially dramatic consequences for humans, animals and the Earth's climate. But how are such predictions made?

Behind the figures quoted in the media lies an extensive body of mathematics, from global climate modelling, to understanding ice growth, helping researchers navigate around the Arctic, and analysing the data they bring back from their expeditions. In this video conference we will look at all of these aspects. Mathematical topics covered will include:

• mathematical modelling
• trigonometry and loci in two and three dimensions
• use of data to inform and misinform

We hope that there will also be a guest appearance from Professor Peter Wadhams, Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge.

Resources

• Plan for the day
• Session 1: Navigating in the Arctic (background article)
  • map projections(student worksheet, additional notes)
  • using GPS (student worksheet, additional notes)
• Session 2: The temperature of the Earth: creating a mathematical model (student worksheet, additional notes, background article)
• Session 3: Arctic sea-ice: using statistics to present a case

  We will give each school a role and ask them to present their case from the perspective of that role:

  • the environmental group
  • the energy company (with a huge investment in oil production)
  • the government committee
  • Making sense of sea ice data — Background article;
  • Predicting the trend — worksheet and worksheet with guidance notes;
  • Presenting the evidence — worksheet and worksheet with guidance notes.

We suggest you use the Statistics toolkit available on the Plus website:
This toolkit explores statistical aspects of the expedition, including the "spin" that can be put on statistical evidence to make it sound positive or negative, and methods to predict future trends in Arctic climate change. You can download the whole toolkit, or download the individual components:

Additional material

There is a wealth of additional material available on the Plus website, from which these resources have been taken.  We suggest you make use of these during the afternoon project session, and for follow-up work.

• Maths and climate change: the melting Arctic, Plus feature article
• Arctic to be 'ice-free in summer', BBC
• Catlin Arctic Survey and Education Resources