Probability

What is the chance of winning? Tennis

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Different games have different ways of scoring. For example, in table tennis it is the first to eleven or more points by a margin of at least 2 points. Until quite recently it was best to 21 or more points by a margin of at least 2 points. In some other games, like squash and volley ball you can only score a point if you win a point on your own serve. And in other games, like tennis, the scoring system involves a sequence of games and sets that must be won in order to win the overall match.

How strong is DNA evidence?

More information: DNA matching, the Prosecutor's and Defendant's Fallacies

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Rare Events

More information: the case of Sally Clark, the case of Lucia de Berk (Wikipedia, Bad Science website), children with the same birthday (Plus website, Understanding Uncertainty website

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Evaluating Headlines

More information and animations: understanding the micromort, small but lethal

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Winning Scores

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The Maths behind the Olympic Games

Football has a simple scoring system, but other games are not so simple. Games like tennis, badminton, squash, volleyball have quite complicated scoring systems. In some games, like badminton and volleyball, you can only win points on your own serve. Games like tennis and table-tennis require you to win the best of 3 or 5 sets/games.

Probability and Risk

Every day, we make decisions based on our assessment of the risks involved in situations we encounter and the probability which we think applies to those risks. But how realistic are these judgements?

In this conference, students will use mathematics to help them think more clearly about the risks that we face, and which we hear about in the media. They will deconstruct newspaper reports covering stories such as the risks of vaccination, new wonder drugs, lucky lottery winners, the rate of teenage pregnancies, and so on.

Project Work

Probability and Risk