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Rare Events

More information: the case of Sally Clark, the case of Lucia de Berk (Wikipedia, Bad Science website), children with the same birthday (Plus website, Understanding Uncertainty website

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  • 15-17 years
  • Probability
  • independent and dependent events

Positive Test Navigation

video iconIntroduction
  worksheet iconDo spots mean measles?
  presentation iconEvaluating Headlines
video iconMisuse of Probability
  presentation iconRare Events
  worksheet iconHow believable are test results?
  presentation iconHow strong is DNA evidence?
   activity iconMatching criminals
video iconThe case of Denis John Adams
video iconInterpreting the Evidence
  worksheet iconR v Denis John Adams
  worksheet iconInterpreting Evidence
video iconAdditional Evidence

notes iconTeacher notes and worksheet answers

The test is positive: But what are the odds it's wrong? homepage
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Motivate is part of the family of activities in the Millennium Mathematics Project, which also includes the Plus and NRICH websites.

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